UFC 316 is coming in a little more than a week and here we are, folks.
Sean O’Malley is getting an undeserved Bantamweight title shot after losing to Merab Dvalishvili via Unanimous Decision (UD) back in September, 2024.
I think Petr Yan, who is fresh off a two-fight win streak against Song Yadong and Deiveson Figueiredo, should have been given the nod. Hell, I wouldn’t even have minded seeing Umar Nurmagomedov get another run at the title.
But the UFC does what it wants — which is to make the biggest money fight possible. So, here we are.
UFC 316 Breakdown: Merab ‘The Machine’ Dvalishvili or ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley?
Look… Merab (19-4-0) is on a 12-fight win streak in the UFC, and he mauled Sean (18-2-0) like a maniac during their last outing at UFC 306, going the distance with 49-46, 48-47, 48-47 (though most fans believed the other two judges were too lenient with Sean).
I’m sure we all remember Merab giving Sean a little kiss on his back to assert playful dominance.
Sean, who is supposed to be a striking beast, never appeared to get out of first gear during their fight. He didn’t land any of his signature combos or inflict significant damage against the Georgian machine back then — so who’s to say any of that will change this time?
With Merab’s relentless pressure that has drowned a countless number of fighters over the years (including ‘Suga’ himself), nobody seems to have a good answer against him.
Merab: A Cheat Code
I really don’t see Sean winning Merab at UFC 316.
Unless Merab goes full dumb-dumb mode and primarly fights Sean on the feet for five entire rounds like how Belal did against JDM, there ain’t no way he loses.
The truth is that nobody has figured out how to beat a machine in the octagon. Going five rounds against someone with unlimited stamina and a tough chin just sounds like an impossible task.
It’s one thing for Sean to level up and become better at stuffing takedowns. But doing it against ‘The Machine’ is just different. I mean, Merab is the kind of guy to shoot dozens of takedowns without losing energy.
Sean O’Malley: It’s Do or Die
Sean is already getting an undeserved title shot. If he loses this again… well… that puts him out of title contention for some time.
He must achieve victory.
Sean has to work faster, show greater urgency, if he wants to beat Merab.
Every single time Merab attempts a takedown and forces Sean on the backfoot, it creates disruption, undermining Sean’s rhythm and negating his striking.
Sean cannot allow that to happen. He must move forward and keep punching.
The fact is that Merab is neither a submission threat nor a striking threat. He wins by outlasting his opponents.
Sean cannot fear this. He must not let Merab break him down.
If Merab’s weapon is relentless takedowns, then perhaps Sean’s retaliation should be relentless striking.
An Easy Prediction For UFC 316… Maybe Too Easy?
I expect Merab to stick to his usual blueprint. Why fix something that ain’t broken?
He’s gonna keep pressuring Sean, wrestle him relentlessly, and suffocate Sean until there ain’t no sugar left. Ultimately, Sean has never been a wrestler and he never will. He’s a striking specialist through and through.
Unless Sean lands a precise shot that sleeps Merab, like how he did against Aljamain Sterling back during UFC 292, he ain’t winning this.
The classic wrestling specialist vs striking specialist matchup rarely sees the latter win. Khabib against Mcgregor, anyone?
Final prediction: Merab beats Sean at UFC 316 via UD (a closer UD, this time).
Want more fighting content before UFC 316? Check out some fun UFC facts here!
