On April 27, Ian Garry is set to face Carlos Prates (UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs Prates), and boy am I excited.
Ian Garry is Rightfully “The Future”
Ian Garry (15-1) proved his worth against Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310, showing the world that the monstrous Kazakh was human at the end of the day. Although the Irish phenom lost, his stock went up, and there’s no doubt he still has a lot more to show of himself in the future.
At only 27 years old, he has carved a path through the welterweight division with a blend of calculated and technical striking, movement, and lots of swagger reminiscent of another Irish fighter… He’s unusually tall for the division, standing at 191cm or 6’3″, and he knows how to utilise his reach effectively.
Garry fights in a very polished and smart way, sort of like Leon Edwards.
I think something noteworthy about him is that he has legitimate fight IQ. We saw how he outpointed Neil Magny and Michael Page, and how he made sure to punish Shavkat as much as possible with a strong ground game.
Garry is not afraid of being boring. He does what he needs to do to win.
Carlos Prates is Certainly “The Nightmare”
Carlos Prates (21-6) is unbeaten in the UFC, having knocked out every single opponent so far.
His power is no joke, and the fact that he punched the lights out of Neil Magny — whom Garry could only take to a decision victory — says a lot about how dangerous a striker he is.
It’s almost as if Prates is the opposite of Garry in terms of fighting style. The Brazillian is always trying to find that kill shot no matter how big the risk is whereas the Irishman is the more collected and technical one.
Here’s a crazy stat: Prates has won every fight with a KO or TKO in his last 10 fights since 2021.
Prates comes to end fights, not win them.
Technicality Against Violence
Get this: Prates, who is 185cm, has a reach of 198cm.
That is simply outrageous.
Garry, who stands at 191cm, only has a reach of 188cm. This means that Prates, the shorter fighter, has 10cm more in reach compared to Garry!
Garry, who is good with distance management, is going to struggle to find his shot against Prates… Is what I was going to say.
I think we shouldn’t forget that Garry has fought someone else with an even more astonishing reach: Neil Magny. Magny is 191cm with a mind-boggling reach of 203cm.
I’m not saying that Magny is on Prates’s level. What I’m saying is that this ain’t Garry’s first rodeo against someone with a big reach advantage.
Anyway, this fight is either going to be a banger where Prates goes all out with Garry in the striking department or a complete snoozefest where Garry becomes so calculated that he nullifies Prates’s striking and smothers him to a decision victory.
Judging by how composed and intelligent Garry is, the latter is the likelier option.
Unless Garry loses his marbles, no way in hell do I see him trading blows with Prates, who harnesses death in his fists.
Garry has fought strong strikers before, like Geoff Neal and Michael Page. He has also survived Shavkat, who is a submission monster.
There is no doubt that Garry can deal with Prates. Prates is not known for his ground game; it is unlikely he can handle Garry’s takedowns.
I’m Betting on Garry
Yes, Prates is the more seasoned fighter who’s likely in his prime at 31 years old; he has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Garry, contrastingly, still has a chip on his shoulder as a young fighter with only one loss on his record.
The pressure is on Garry.
However, I can only see Garry sticking to a strategic game plan where he avoids hellish exchanges with Prates and instead either 1. resorts to takedowns or 2. somehow chips away at Prates even with an inferior reach.
I think Garry gets the unanimous decision victory here — unless Prates sleeps him with one punch, of course.
